JXCE Carvana Q2 Retail Sales Projection Summary

Carvana achieved another strong quarter of retail sales, but this quarter came in below the widely discussed 40% year-over-year threshold. The JXCE projection for Q2 retail sales is 197,600 and the projection for new car sales eclipses 3,600 units. The average list price of sales increased this quarter by nearly 8%, but these ASP gains should be partially offset by a few percentage points due to the decrease in retail marketplace sales as a percentage of overall sales (assuming no change in revenue recognition policy). The increase in new car sales also provided a tailwind of nearly $450 to ASP. Inventory age and days to sale improved notably this quarter. Quarter-over-quarter depreciation actually became appreciation, where the top 15 selling models saw an average increase of 2.8% QoQ for their most popular model year and trim combination.

As mentioned the past few quarters, Atlanta and a few other markets are worth watching. This underperformance is not unique to Atlanta and is covered in greater detail in JXCE Research Reports provided to customers. While deliveries per location continued the bounce back from Q4, Carvana Vending Machines continue to underperform traditional delivery centers. It raises questions about the advertising value of vending machines in already established markets.

Disclaimer: This content is subjective in nature. Data is gathered by daily monitoring of Carvana retail web pages. Recent retail unit sales projections have been accurate within 0.5%, with historical accuracy within 1%. This content is provided for informational purposes only. JXCE is not a registered investment advisor in any jurisdiction and does not hold financial positions in the companies covered.