The Value of Alternative Data: A Carvana Case Study

Many are familiar with the story of Carvana’s stock. It suffered an epic 99% drawdown, only to later rebound and rise more than 10,000%. Truly historic. So what gave some shareholders the confidence to stick with the stock even as bankruptcy risk loomed? Data.

While alternative data may tell only part of the story, JXCE provides key performance indicators (KPIs), metrics, and trend insights through the Carvana Sales Tracker, delivering research reports that help customers see the market in near real time. Let’s dive in.

In late 2022, Carvana was a struggling company. Large inventory, long turnover times resulting in nearly a $1 billion inventory write-down, an inefficient delivery network, and a clearly overextended operation. Simply put, the business was inefficient, and the stock reflected that. At the time, Carvana had over 70,000 retail units available for purchase, with an average inventory age over 90 days. Delivery times averaged nearly a week, deliveries per location hovered around 400, and roughly 40 locations generated fewer than 20 sales per quarter. Operational efficiency was at a low point, and the stock traded around $4 per share.

So, what changed? Carvana abandoned its “grow at all costs” retail unit sales philosophy and began operating like a true business. Efficiency came first, and sales followed. The company implemented stricter geographic sales policies, improving delivery timelines, and reduced inventory to under 30,000 units, focusing on more efficient transactions. Inventory age was cut in half, lowering the risk of another major write-down. Order processing times improved, signaling scalable operations. Deliveries per location rose roughly 50%, reaching about 600 per location, while low-volume locations were halved.

These improvements were immediately visible to JXCE customers receiving Research Reports, who could track incremental operational gains as they happened in near real time.

By late 2023 and early 2024, Carvana was operating efficiently at lower sales volumes under 100,000 retail units per quarter. Could they scale back up while maintaining efficiency? The data said yes — and that’s the genesis of this post. JXCE customers had daily insights into retail unit growth, helping them anticipate market shifts, beat analyst estimates, and navigate the stock’s dramatic rebound.

While this data focuses on retail sales and delivery logistics — not wholesale or financing — it has proven invaluable to customers. Even today, analysts and the broader market often miss key trends and misestimate retail sales volumes, reinforcing the value of accurate, real-time alternative data.