JXCE Carvana Q4 Retail Sales Projection Summary

The fourth quarter was a period of notable expansion for Carvana. The company saw growth in retail sales—with the JXCE projection reaching 164,100 units—as well as in new car sales, which totaled nearly 1,300 across seven states. Additionally, Carvana continued to expand its network of delivery centers. This growth should come as no surprise to JXCE customers, as our research reports consistently indicated that the company’s guidance of “at least 150,000 retail sales” was overly conservative. However, the expansion of delivery centers is a trend to watch, as the average number of deliveries per location declined for the first time in two years.

While retail volumes grew, certain business metrics softened. Inventory age at the end of the quarter was up nearly 20% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 5% year-over-year, and Average Selling Price (ASP) also declined QoQ. The ASP dip was driven by lower list prices, greater depreciation, and a rise in third-party retail sales. Notably, this occurred despite a QoQ decrease in the average age and mileage of vehicles sold—a factor that usually acts as a tailwind for pricing. Despite these shifts, Carvana remained operationally efficient; low-volume delivery centers stayed well below the overhead levels seen in 2022 and 2023.

Disclaimer: This content is subjective in nature. Data is gathered by daily monitoring of Carvana retail web pages. Recent retail unit sales projections have been accurate within 0.5%, with historical accuracy within 1%. This content is provided for informational purposes only. JXCE is not a registered investment advisor in any jurisdiction and does not hold financial positions in the companies covered.